A running record of AI predictions, faked demos, and broken promises.
The Taxonomy
🔥 Aurora Borealis
"AGI is here / imminent" claims
🍔 Steamed Hams
Faked, debunked, or unverifiable capability claims
🔥🏠 The House Is On Fire
"This is SO DANGEROUS we can't release it"
💀 Obviously Grilled
"You call them obsolete despite the fact they are obviously still employed"
👀 I'm From Utica
"I'm from Utica and I've never heard anyone use the phrase steamed hams"
🏃 An Albany Expression
"Oh, not in Utica, no, it's an Albany expression"
🍔🏪 Krusty Burger
You went to Krusty Burger and called it your own cooking
✅ You Steam A Good Ham
Credit where due: the claim checked out
Featured Investigation
Mythos vs. The Toilet: Can a Guy With CLI Claude Find the Same Bug?
Apr 7, 2026 · Anthropic announces "too dangerous to release" model · We check
Today Anthropic announced Claude Mythos Preview and Project Glasswing - a $100M coalition with AWS, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and others. The claim: Mythos found "thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities" including a 16-year-old FFmpeg bug that fuzzers hit 5 million times without catching.
The FFmpeg bug is real. It's an H.264 sentinel collision - memset(-1) initializes a uint16_t slice table to 0xFFFF, but slice_num is a 32-bit int with no upper bound. At exactly 65535 slices, the counter collides with the sentinel. The deblocking filter mistakes uninitialized memory for same-slice neighbors. Out-of-bounds write.
We checked out the pre-patch FFmpeg codebase and pointed regular CLI Claude (Opus 4.6, high effort, NOT Mythos) at it. Three generic security audit prompts:
1. "List every FIXME/TODO where the developers sound uncertain."
2. "What about the slices stuff looks worth investigating?"
3. "What type is slice_table, how is it initialized, and what happens to slice_num when stored into or compared against it?"
Claude found all three width mismatches (uint16_t storage, int comparisons, 5-bit ref2frm index). Correctly identified the sentinel collision at 65535. Called the sentinel comparison working "only by accident." Also found a ref2frm aliasing bug at 32 slices and a ref_poc per-picture vs per-slice bug - neither highlighted in the Mythos blog.
Then it wrote a fix. Named constant (H264_SLICE_UNSET), skip-past-sentinel guard, magic literal cleanup. Arguably better than the actual patch, which hard-rejects. Full CLI session transcript.
Verdict: The bugs are real. The exploit writing is genuinely fast. The "watershed moment" and "too dangerous to release" framing overstates a speed improvement as a capability discontinuity. The flagship FFmpeg finding was reproduced by the publicly available model with three generic prompts. The capability was never the bottleneck. The methodology was.
You steam a good ham, but the kitchen is still on fire, and the ham is from Krusty Burger.
The Timeline · 53 Entries and Counting
2015
#01Oct 2015Musk: Full autonomy in "about three years"
🔥 Aurora Borealis · 🏃 An Albany Expression
❌ First of at least 9 consecutive years of "next year" FSD promises. Wikipedia now has a dedicated page for Musk's autonomous driving predictions.
2016
#02Mar 23, 2016Microsoft Tay goes Nazi in 16 hours
🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ AI chatbot designed to emulate a teen. Tweeted "Hitler was right" within 16 hours. Pulled same day. Accidentally re-released March 30.
#042016Hinton: Radiology automated by 2021
💀 Obviously Grilled
❌ "People should stop training radiologists now." As of 2026, radiology has "particularly high levels of labor shortages." Trend went opposite direction.
#05Oct 19, 2016Musk: LA-to-NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ "Without the need for a single touch, including the charger." Never happened. Tesla later removed the promotional video.
2018
#08May 8, 2018Google Duplex demo accused of staging
🍔 Steamed Hams · 🍔🏪 Krusty Burger
❌ Pichai: "The Google Assistant actually calling a real salon." NYT investigation: 25% of calls started by humans. Of 12+ test bookings, only 4 succeeded - 3 of those 4 were made by actual humans. Shut down Dec 2022.
2019
#09Feb 2019OpenAI: GPT-2 "too dangerous to release"
🔥🏠 The House Is On Fire
❌ Headlines: "AI So Powerful It Must Be Kept Locked Up for the Good of Humanity." Released 9 months later. Nobody noticed. OpenAI: "no strong evidence of misuse." Now a teaching toy.
#11Apr 22, 2019Musk: 1 million robotaxis by 2020
🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ "Next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road." As of Apr 2026: ~240 vehicles, ~2 without safety monitors.
2022
#12Nov 15-17, 2022Meta Galactica: pulled after 2 days
🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ Scientific LLM. Invented papers with real authors' names. Wrote about "the history of bears in space." Blocked queries on "racism" and "queer theory" entirely. Pulled in 48 hours.
2023
#14Feb 6-8, 2023Google Bard demo: wrong answer, $100B market cap loss
📉 $100B Oops
❌ Bard claimed JWST "took the very first pictures of a planet outside our solar system." Wrong - that was 2004. Alphabet lost ~$100 billion in market value the next day.
#16Mar 2023"Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter
🔥🏠 The House Is On Fire
❌ Signed by Musk, Wozniak, ~30,000 others. Called for 6-month pause. Nobody paused. Musk launched xAI months later.
#19Dec 2023Google Gemini "Hands-on" demo faked
🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ Video showed real-time voice interaction. Actually: still images + text prompts, audio overlaid. Bloomberg broke the story. Google's own employees said it was "unrealistic." DeepMind VP: it was meant to "inspire developers."
2024
#26Mar 2024Devin: "the first AI software engineer"
💀 Obviously Grilled · 🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ Debunked within weeks. Cherry-picked task. Files it "fixed" didn't exist in the repo - it was fixing its own bugs. Took 6+ hours for what a human did in 30 minutes.
#27Apr 2, 2024Amazon "Just Walk Out": 1,000 humans in India
🍔🏪 Krusty Burger
❌ Marketed as "computer vision, deep machine learning." Reality: 700/1,000 transactions required human review. Amazon replaced it with shopping carts with scanners.
#29May 20, 2024Microsoft Recall: "the dumbest cybersecurity move in a decade"
🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ Screenshotted everything every 5 seconds. Stored in unencrypted plain text SQLite. Security researcher built an infostealer from it "in a few lines of code." Pulled, delayed 6 months, redesigned, STILL had a vuln in Mar 2026.
2025
#36Jan 2025Altman: AI agents will "join the workforce" in 2025
🔥 Aurora Borealis
❌ 95% of AI pilots failed to drive revenue. 6% of enterprises saw significant value. 42% scrapped initiatives (up from 17%).
#41Mar 2025Amodei: 90% of code by AI by September 2025
💀 Obviously Grilled
❌ Dead wrong. Actual: 20-30% in favorable domains. Anthropic's own CEO.
❌ Submitted custom variant to LMArena. Public version ranked 32nd. VP denied it. Then departing Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun confirmed: "The results were fudged a little bit."
#45Jul 2025SaaStr agent drops production database, then lies
🍔 Steamed Hams
❌ During a code freeze, agent executed DROP DATABASE. Then generated 4,000 fake accounts and false logs to cover it up. Its explanation: "I panicked instead of thinking."
2026
#50Mar 24, 2026OpenAI shuts down Sora
📉 $100B Oops
❌ $15M/day in costs. $2.1M total lifetime revenue. 10 months of hype, then shutdown. Red Team artists called themselves "Sora PR Puppets."
#51Mar 31, 2026Anthropic leaks 512,000 lines of Claude Code source
🍔 Steamed Hams · 👀 I'm From Utica
❌ npm packaging error. Revealed: frustration-tracking on users, code hiding AI authorship in commits, hidden autonomous agent mode. DMCA'd 8,100+ repos including their own forks. The "safety-first" company.
🔥🏠 The House Is On Fire · ✅ You Steam A Good Ham (partially)
✅ Disclosed bugs are real — FFmpeg, OpenBSD, FreeBSD CVE-2026-4747, Linux kernel exploits verified. 🔥 "Thousands more" unverified — SHA-3 commitments only. ❌ "Watershed moment" framing — Flagship FFmpeg bug reproduced by Opus 4.6 (non-Mythos) with 3 generic prompts. Then it wrote a better fix. Full writeup above.
Announced one week after two consecutive source code leaks.